Wheat prices have risen in Poland due to a decline in exports from Ukraine
At the Port of Gdańsk, the price of wheat reached 1,000 zlotys per metric ton for the first time, which is approximately 11,500 hryvnias.
One of the main reasons for the rise in grain prices in Poland is the projected sharp drop in Ukrainian wheat exports during the 2026/27 season.
European analysts expect that Ukraine will be able to export only 5–10 million metric tons of wheat. By comparison, 15.7 million metric tons were exported in the 2024/25 season, and 14 million metric tons in 2025/26.
This forecast is significantly more pessimistic than the estimate by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which expects Ukrainian wheat exports to reach 13.5 million metric tons.
Among the reasons cited for the decline in exports are operational issues at the ports of Greater Odesa, congestion on alternative logistics routes, and the risk of further escalation of hostilities in the Black Sea.
Due to logistical problems, wheat prices in Poland and Ukraine have diverged significantly.
A Polish farmer can earn about 1,000 zlotys, or 11,500 UAH, per metric ton of wheat. At the same time, Ukrainian farmers are forced to sell their grain at significantly lower prices.
Specifically, the price of wheat at the field in Ukraine is about 4,000–4,500 UAH per metric ton, while at a grain elevator, farmers can receive approximately 7,000 UAH per metric ton.
Thus, the difference between Polish and Ukrainian prices exceeds 7,000 UAH per metric ton.
According to analysts, one of the key factors behind this gap is the rise in land transportation costs by approximately $50 per metric ton, as well as limited access for Ukrainian exports to deep-water seaports.
This was reported by farmer.pl, citing Mateusz Palejko, an analyst at Agri Commodity Experts.
In the first half of August, Ukraine exported 790,700 metric tons of agricultural products, while during the corresponding period in July, the figure stood at 1.849 million metric tons. Thus, export volumes fell by approximately 57%.
As a reminder, Ukraine increased its trade in agricultural products with the EU by 11%.
The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR) has appealed to Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky, urging him to take immediate measures to resolve the issue of blocked seaports. The association warns that a further deterioration of the situation could lead to mass bankruptcies of agricultural enterprises and a large-scale crisis in one of the key sectors of the Ukrainian economy.
As a reminder, the first civilian air defense units have begun operations at Ukrainian seaports and railway infrastructure facilities.
