In Hungary, the opposition has a chance to defeat Orbán for the first time in many years
For the first time in many years, the opposition in Hungary has a real chance of ousting incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party from power.
The opposition party Tisa, led by Péter Magyar, has been polling higher than the ruling party for over a year.
At the same time, the far-right party “Our Homeland” may also enter parliament.
Mátyás advocates a more constructive approach toward the EU and Ukraine. His team states that, if victorious, they will not abuse their veto power in the European Union, though they simultaneously promise to vigorously defend Hungary’s interests.
The country’s parliament is formed under a mixed system:
- 93 deputies are elected from party lists;
- 106 are elected in single-member districts.
The opposition is traditionally stronger in large cities, while the ruling party has an advantage in small towns and villages. Additionally, the system is reinforced by a “winner’s bonus” mechanism, which grants bonus seats to the leading party.
It is also noted that the redistribution of districts in favor of rural areas further strengthens Fidesz’s position.
The government actively uses rhetoric of fear and pits the opposition against “external forces.” In particular, Hungary is accused of being dependent on Brussels.
At the same time, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is on the rise in the election campaign, used to mobilize the electorate.
Examples include blocking European financial decisions for Ukraine and statements about Ukraine’s alleged involvement in incidents in the region, which are not confirmed by other parties.
Political analysts identify several possible scenarios:
- A victory for “Tisza” with a constitutional majority—rapid changes and potential improvement in relations with the EU and Ukraine;
- A victory without a two-thirds majority—the risk of reforms being blocked by the existing Fidesz influence network;
- Orbán retaining power — continued blocking of key EU decisions regarding Ukraine;
- A fragmented parliament — the possibility of a coalition with radical forces and an escalation of confrontation.
Experts also do not rule out that even in the event of a defeat, Orbán could remain an influential political player and attempt to return through new elections or a political crisis.
The opposition party “Tisa” has a chance to win two-thirds of the seats in the Hungarian parliament in the April 12 elections, which would allow it to amend the constitution and key laws.
As a reminder, despite Orbán’s blocking, Ukraine will receive 90 billion: IPA President Galina Heylo on EU plans to finance the country.
Balázs Orbán, political director to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, assured that Ukraine does not pose a military threat to his country.
