Brazil election could put Amazon protection at risk — Mongabay
Brazil’s presidential election on October 4 could determine the future policy for protecting the Amazon. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is running for a fourth nonconsecutive term, is competing against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. According to polls, both candidates are likely to advance to the runoff scheduled for October 25.
The Lula administration has reduced deforestation in the Amazon to its lowest level in a decade. Brazil contains 60% of this natural region. At the same time, environmentalists and analysts warn that a change in government could jeopardize progress in combating illegal logging, invasions of Indigenous lands and illegal mining, Mongabay reports.
Results of forest protection operations
In the Apyterewa Indigenous Territory in Pará state, the Parakanã people are gradually reclaiming lands previously occupied by around 3,000 illegal settlers. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, this territory was the most deforested among Brazil’s Indigenous lands: in 2022 alone, an area of forest nearly comparable to Paris was destroyed there.
After Lula took office in 2023, federal forces launched an operation to dismantle the illegal Vila Renascer settlement. The area deforested in Apyterewa fell to 7.5 square kilometers in 2025, and the territory dropped to 12th place in the ranking of the most deforested lands. However, after the federal presence was reduced in late 2024, at least nine attacks were recorded there. In December 2025, a contracted worker for the environmental agency IBAMA was killed in an ambush while illegally kept cattle were being removed.
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In the neighboring Triunfo do Xingu protected area, after Operation Curupira began, deforestation fell from 421.8 square kilometers in 2021 to 48.07 square kilometers in 2025. Federal agencies also blocked an illegal route to a gold mine in the Terra do Meio Ecological Station, while satellite images show forest recovering where the road had been.
Infrastructure and international commitments
Environmentalists also criticize some initiatives of Lula’s government. In April 2026, authorities announced tenders to pave sections of the BR-319 highway. Critics of the project believe it could encourage the creation of illegal side roads and new deforestation. Concerns have also been raised over deepening the Madeira River channel for soybean barges: scientists report elevated mercury levels in bottom sediments and fish.
Under Lula’s administration, the Amazon Fund increased annual financing to 1.3 billion reais in the 2023–2025 cycle, while its available funds amount to 6.7 billion reais. Analysts note that weakening environmental oversight could complicate Brazil’s commitment to eliminate illegal deforestation by 2030 and reduce emissions by up to 67% by 2035. This could also affect soybean and beef exports to the EU, where a regulation on products not linked to deforestation is due to enter into force at the end of 2026.
