The U.S. Treasury Secretary has predicted when oil prices will fall

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that global oil prices will drop significantly over the next 3 to 9 months. According to his estimates, by the end of 2026, energy prices will fall below the levels seen at the beginning of this year or during the 2020–2025 period. 

Bassent made these remarks in an interview with Fox News.

The minister cited the United Arab Emirates’ official withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, which took place on May 1, 2026, as the key factor behind the price drop. According to Bessent, the UAE’s release from the cartel’s quotas will lead to increased production volumes and the dismantling of the organization’s monopolistic influence on the market. The official expressed his conviction that most monopolies eventually collapse under their own weight, which provides grounds for optimistic forecasts regarding fuel availability in the future.

The minister considers the expected reopening of logistics routes in the Middle East to be an additional factor in market stabilization. Currently, hundreds of tankers are waiting to set sail due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, though the U.S. continues to block exclusively Iranian vessels. Scott Bessent suggests that the supply shortage will soon disappear due to the oil currently stuck in the Persian Gulf. The decline in energy prices should mark an important step in the global economic recovery following a period of high volatility.

Oil prices have fallen due to the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and tensionssurrounding Iran.

As a reminder, OPEC oil exports plummeted to a record low in March.

Earlier, OPEC+ agreed to a minimally symbolic increase in oil production amid the war in Iran, starting in May 2026.