The IMF forecasts a record increase in Russia's national debt in the coming years
The aggressor country’s debt burden will grow by an average of 2% annually. If the figure stands at 19.1% of GDP by the end of this year, Russia’s public debt will rise to 21.2% by 2027 and to 27.2% by 2030.
This is stated in an analytical note from the International Monetary Fund.
It is noteworthy that the pace of debt growth has slowed somewhat compared to forecasts from last October. At that time, analysts expected the 30% mark to be crossed as early as 2029. The change in forecasts was influenced by the situation in the Middle East, particularly the war in Iran, without which the deterioration of the Russian economy would have been much more rapid.
According to reports, Moscow’s national debt grew by 21% last year—to 35.1 trillion rubles. Domestic borrowing was the main driver of this process, with its volume increasing by nearly a third. Currently, domestic debt accounts for 87.5% of the Kremlin’s total debt, underscoring the regime’s critical dependence on domestic resources amid limited access to external markets.
As a reminder, Russia is seeing a deterioration in the economic situation and a rise in the risk of loan defaults.
After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war expenses, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that until recently seemed resilient to sanctions.
Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.
