The EU population is projected to decline by 11.7% by the end of the century, according to Eurostat
By 2100, the population of the European Union is expected to decline by 53 million due to low birth rates and an aging population.
According to Eurostat data published on Thursday, April 16, the population is expected to peak in 2029 at 453 million, after which a prolonged decline will begin. By the end of the century, the number of EU residents will fall to less than 400 million.
The main factor driving this population decline is the low fertility rate, which currently stands at about 1.3 children per woman—insufficient for natural replacement. The forecast indicates a significant shift in the age structure: the number of young people and those of working age will decrease, while the share of people over 80 will more than double. This will place an additional burden on the economies and social systems of the bloc’s countries.
Analysts emphasize that the trend toward declining birth rates in Europe continues to intensify. Although migration may partially offset population decline in the coming decade, in the long term it will not be able to fully compensate for the natural decline. Eurostat’s study is an important signal to governments regarding the need to adapt infrastructure and the labor market to new demographic realities.
British journalist Will Lloyd warns: due to the war, Ukraine’s population, which exceeded 40 million in 2014, could shrink to approximately 20 million by 2025.
Estimates of a drastic reduction in Ukraine’s population to 20 million people are unrealistic and lack scientific basis. This was stated by Oleksandr Gladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, while commenting on high-profile publications in Western media.
