The NBU has revised downward its inflation forecast for Ukraine for 2026–2027
On July 30, the National Bank of Ukraine updated its macroeconomic forecast and raised its inflation projections for the coming years. Specifically, the forecast for 2026 was revised from 9.4% to 10.0%, and for 2027—from 6.5% to 6.9%. The regulator attributes the changes to an updated assessment of economic risks and factors affecting price dynamics.
“In recent months, the intensification of fundamental price pressures has shown signs of becoming a sustained trend due to rising business costs, primarily in logistics, labor, and energy. Inflation expectations were generally stable but remained elevated,” the regulator noted in a press release on Thursday.
According to the statement, the forecast for core inflation has deteriorated even more significantly: for this year, from 7.2% to 9.2%, and for next year, from 4.3% to 5.1%.
The National Bank noted that in June, consumer inflation slowed as expected to 7.2%, primarily due to an increase in the supply of unprocessed food products. Core inflation, however, continued to accelerate—reaching 8.1%—and exceeded the NBU’s forecast trajectory.
According to its estimates, consumer inflation resumed its upward trend in July, while core inflation continued to rise.
“These trends will be driven by expanded fiscal stimulus, further growth in corporate labor costs, as well as secondary effects from rising fuel prices and the weakening of the hryvnia in previous periods,” the National Bank noted.
According to the NBU’s forecast, inflation will begin to decline in 2027 (to 6.9%) and reach the 5% target by the end of 2028, as projected in the April forecast. This will be facilitated by a gradual reduction in budget deficits, easing pressure on the labor market, an expected increase in crop yields, and an improvement in the energy sector as security risks subside. Monetary policy measures by the NBU will also have a significant impact.
As a reminder, Ukraine has received a new tranche of 3.47 billion euros from the EU.
The European Union plans to provide Ukraine with 920 million euros to restore and strengthen its energy infrastructure ahead of the winter season. This was announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
As a reminder, Zelenskyy presented Ursula von der Leyen with Ukraine’s first Order of Europe.
