Ukrainians are crucial to Poland's economy: their exodus threatens to trigger a recession
The mass exodus of Ukrainian workers from Poland could lead to economic problems, including rising prices and a slowdown in GDP growth.
This is reported by Rzeczpospolita.
It is estimated that between 770,000 and over 1 million Ukrainian citizens work in Poland—that is about 6% of the total workforce.
Most economists believe that if around 500,000 Ukrainians leave, the country’s GDP could drop by about 0.8 percentage points in the short term.
Additionally, a labor shortage could exacerbate inflation by 0.5–0.6 percentage points, which, in turn, could force the National Bank of Poland to raise interest rates.
At the same time, some experts believe that the Polish economy is sufficiently resilient, and the risk of a mass return of Ukrainians is currently low.
Analysts also note that even after the war ends, an exodus of Ukrainians is not guaranteed; on the contrary, further growth in migration to Poland is possible.
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