Trump announces deal on US control over Venezuela’s oil reserves — OilPrice
As OilPrice reports, US President Donald Trump announced a deal that, according to him, gives the United States control over most of Venezuela’s more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. He called it “the largest oil deal in the history of the world” and claimed that the arrangement would significantly increase US oil supply and lower gasoline prices.
Timing of the announcement and the market
Trump released the statement on Friday evening, after the week’s trading in West Texas Intermediate oil futures on CME Globex had ended. The main market for these contracts is closed from the end of the Friday session until Sunday evening.
Article author Robert Rapier said he had seen no evidence of trading based on advance information about the statement by Trump, members of his family, administration officials, or other individuals. At the same time, in his view, knowledge of the exact content and timing of a potentially market-moving statement could have given traders an advantage before the market closed.
Reserves and production
The claim of access to 65 billion barrels of reserves does not mean that such a volume of oil will immediately enter the global market. According to OilPrice’s assessment, Venezuela’s oil industry suffers from years of underinvestment, deteriorating infrastructure, and the loss of technical specialists. A significant portion of the resources is located in the Orinoco Basin and consists of extra-heavy oil, which is more difficult to extract and refine.
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According to the publication, the deal allegedly involves substantial private investment, and a significant increase in production could take years. At the same time, financial markets react to expectations of future supply: reports of large reserves, a possible increase in supply, and lower gasoline prices may affect traders’ assessments even before additional oil appears.
Access to information
Rapier stressed that presidential decisions and statements affecting commodity markets do not in themselves constitute manipulation. However, in his assessment, more serious questions arise if confidential information about a future statement is used for personal financial gain. Rule 180.1 of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission prohibits manipulative or deceptive schemes involving commodities, futures, and swaps.
The author also drew attention to the paid Truth Social service, which, he said, offers subscribers faster access to Trump’s posts. In Rapier’s view, this intensifies questions about who receives potentially market-significant information first.
