Traders expect a new annual high in U.S. gasoline prices
According to CNBC Top News, traders on the Kalshi prediction market put the probability that the average gasoline price in the United States will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026 at 71%. This is above the previous annual high of $4.56 per gallon, recorded on May 21, according to the American Automobile Association, AAA.
Expectations among Kalshi participants have shifted amid rising oil prices in recent weeks. The price of U.S. oil has again exceeded $100 per barrel, while on Monday WTI futures rose 3.5% to more than $103 per barrel.
Kalshi participants’ forecasts
Kalshi traders also put the probability that the average gasoline price in the United States will exceed $4.80 per gallon at 57%. They estimate the probability of surpassing $5 per gallon at slightly more than 40%.
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According to CNBC, U.S. gasoline prices last reached a record average level in June 2022, when they exceeded $5 per gallon. Kalshi contracts allow participants to bet on specified price thresholds, and their settlement is based on AAA data.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
CNBC links the rise in oil prices to increased tensions between the United States and Iran. According to the outlet, this has called into question the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for global oil supplies.
Kalshi participants also consider it possible that high prices will persist longer: they give even odds that gasoline will cost more than $4.25 per gallon on Election Day, November 3.
