Databank Research cuts Ghana’s budget deficit forecast to 2.2% of GDP
In Ghana, Databank Group’s analytical division, Databank Research, has lowered its baseline forecast for the budget deficit at the end of 2026 from 2.5% of GDP, or GH¢40 billion, to 2.2% of GDP, or GH¢34 billion. MyJoyOnline reports.
Spending offset revenue shortfall
Databank Research attributed the forecast revision to government expenditure in the first half of 2026 being GH¢35.1 billion lower than projected. At the same time, the total spending ceiling stood at GH¢302 billion. According to analysts’ estimates, this offset a revenue shortfall of GH¢1.3 billion.
Databank Research said that the disciplined approach to spending indicates a departure from historically exceeding expenditures. According to analysts, the budget commitment authorization mechanism helps limit inefficient institutional spending. At the same time, the company warned of risks to the implementation of the fiscal plan.
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Primary surplus forecast
Databank Research maintained its forecast for a primary surplus at 1.5% of GDP. It is supported by GH¢6.9 billion in savings on interest payments and stable inflation.
Analysts also cited the transition to the International Monetary Fund’s non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument, as well as a reduction in expenses related to the implementation of the gold reserve from 14.5% to 5% in accordance with a memorandum between the Ministry of Finance and GoldBod, as additional factors of fiscal discipline. The state has also already paid GH¢7.1 billion to electricity producers.
The forecast is also affected by the drilling campaign at the Jubilee field, which increased production to 95,000 barrels of oil per day amid favorable global prices. Databank Research expects that strong demand for treasury bills and proceeds from exports of surplus oil will make it possible to exceed the GH¢30 billion Sinking Fund target by the end of the year.
