Insiders earned $600K at Polymarket betting on Middle East ceasefire
An insider group made $600,000 by placing bets on a ceasefire in the Middle East through the Polymarket betting platform. This highlights how access to confidential information can significantly influence betting markets on military conflicts.
Analysts at Bubblemaps report that the same group previously earned $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. strike on Iran on February 28. Their data suggests these participants had access to classified information, giving them a considerable advantage.
Since early 2024, the group has been using multiple accounts to place large timely bets on military events, attempting to conceal their tracks. In February, several military personnel were arrested in Israel for betting on operations using secret information obtained during their service.
Additionally, 2.5 hours before Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire with Iran, unknown investors sold oil futures and earned over 10% with leverage. This activity has already attracted the attention of the FBI and the relevant regulatory commission.
This case illustrates the risks and challenges associated with using insider information for speculative bets on military and political events. Increased monitoring and regulation of such platforms may be necessary in the near future.
