Snowfall forecast - a new essay by Arthur Hayes

In his new essay "Snowfall Forecast," Arthur Hayes analyzes how changing expectations in the economy affect markets, including bitcoin. The author examines the rhetoric of Donald Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, noting that their political statements shape market expectations about the volume of fiat money. Hayes confirms that without new economic incentives, the markets will face a lack of liquidity, which could lead to a drop in the price of bitcoin to $80,000-85,000. At the same time, if the printing press is activated, cryptocurrency may again become an attractive investment.

Source Incrypted

The author compares market uncertainty to weather forecasts, emphasizing that changes in the economic situation are a political process that is inherently unpredictable. In his article, Hayes notes that the outlook for dollar liquidity has recently deteriorated, and the market is increasingly focusing on actual liquidity rather than the words of politicians. Even as liquidity falls, bitcoin continues to attract investors' attention, indicating their hopes for further gains.

Analyzing recent developments, Hayes emphasizes the importance of monetary policy for cryptocurrency markets and expects that changes in government rhetoric could significantly affect investment strategies. The essay reflects the complexity of the market situation and reminds investors of the obligation to carefully analyze political and economic factors when making decisions.