Sberbank forecasts that the ruble will fall to nearly 100 per dollar
The Russian ruble will continue to weaken, and the dollar exchange rate could approach 100 rubles next year. This forecast was released by Sberbank’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis.
According to the bank’s analysts, by the end of 2026, the dollar will be worth about 88.2 rubles, and in 2027, the exchange rate could rise to 97 rubles. Among the reasons cited are the threat of new sanctions, falling prices for Russian oil, attacks on oil refineries, and the possibility of more active currency purchases by the government to replenish the depleted National Welfare Fund.
In July, the price of Russian Urals crude fell to $64.6 per barrel. By comparison, it stood at $81.6 in the second quarter and $94.9 in April. At the same time, discounts on Russian oil rose to $24–26 per barrel due to higher freight costs and sanctions risks.
Sberbank forecasts a further decline in the price of Urals—to $56.5 in September and $51 by the end of the year. This would mean a further reduction in foreign exchange earnings from Russian exports.
Since May, the ruble has already lost about 20% against the dollar, the euro, and the yuan. The dollar has risen from about 70 to 84.39 rubles, the euro from about 80 to 97.5 rubles, and the yuan has reached 12.5 rubles.
Yuriy Kravchenko, an analyst at Veles Capital, attributes the pressure on the ruble primarily to geopolitical factors. Specifically, these include the deteriorating prospects for the Kremlin’s agreements with Donald Trump, rumors of a possible escalation and mobilization, as well as new U.S. sanctions initiatives that could hit the main buyers of Russian oil—India and China.
Earlier, Sberbank noted a mass exodus of businesses from Russia.
Russian analysts have revised downward their forecast for the country’s economy: they expect higher inflation, slower GDP growth, and lower oil prices; according to new estimates, Russia will not be able to return to its 4% inflation target until 2029.
After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war costs, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that, until recently, seemed resilient to sanctions.
Russian business is currently in a state of controlled collapse
Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.
