Scope Ratings maintains US rating at AA- and warns of debt risks — Fortune
In the United States, rating agency Scope Ratings maintained the country’s sovereign rating at AA- but warned of increasing risks to public debt due to rising interest costs and dependence on conditions in the bond market. As Fortune reports, the rating outlook remains stable.
Scope Ratings noted that the United States’ strengths remain its strong economy, the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, institutions such as the Federal Reserve System, and a deep and liquid capital market. At the same time, the agency expects budget indicators to deteriorate due to structural spending pressures and limited political willingness for fiscal reforms.
Interest costs are rising
According to Scope’s assessment, the US primary deficit, meaning the deficit excluding interest payments, will remain at approximately 3.5% of GDP. The agency links further deterioration primarily to the rising cost of servicing debt.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 5.27%, exceeding the long-term forecasts of the US Congressional Budget Office. The office had expected yields of 4.3% in 2028–2031 and 4.4% in 2032–2036.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculated that if yields remain about one percentage point higher than the Congressional Budget Office’s forecast, this will add about $3.5 trillion to US debt over the next decade. Scope forecasts that without higher economic growth rates or substantial fiscal adjustment, total public debt could approach 160% of GDP by 2036.
Risks due to the debt limit
The agency also drew attention to the established public debt limit. Scope expects the current $41.1 trillion limit to be reached in early 2027. The US Treasury Department may use extraordinary measures to delay default for several months, but lawmakers will ultimately have to raise or suspend the limit.
In Scope’s view, the political situation after the midterm elections could increase the risk of prolonged partisan disputes over this issue. The agency stated that recurring disputes over the debt limit expose weaknesses in fiscal governance and cause periodic market volatility.
According to calculations by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the 2026 US fiscal year ended with a deficit of $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP. Debt held by the public amounted to $32.3 trillion, or 100% of GDP, while interest costs reached a record $1.1 trillion, or 3.4% of GDP.
