The global cocoa market may face a shortage due to El Niño — Bloomberg
The global cocoa market could face a significant shortage in the 2026/27 season due to deteriorating weather conditions in key growing regions. One of the main risks cited is the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon.
Brandon Tay Ho Lian, CEO of Malaysia’s Guan Chong Berhad, forecasts a shortage of 300,000 to 400,000 metric tons of cocoa. By comparison, the market had a surplus of about 100,000 metric tons last season.
Producers in West Africa, where a significant portion of the world’s cocoa is grown, remain particularly vulnerable. Excessive rainfall is already leading to waterlogged soil and increasing the risk of plant diseases. At the same time, El Niño could intensify the dry Harmattan winds, creating additional stress for cocoa trees.
Amid these new concerns, cocoa prices have been rising for the sixth consecutive month. This week, futures reached their highest level since October. According to some analysts’ forecasts, the price could rise to about $8,000 per metric ton by December, up from around $6,500 currently.
At the same time, market participants’ forecasts vary significantly. Analysts at BMI, Hedgepoint Global Markets, and StoneX expect that the 2026/27 season will still see a surplus, although it will be smaller than the previous year.
Demand is also gradually recovering. In particular, cocoa processing volumes in Asia rose by 25% year-over-year in the second quarter, which could further reduce global inventories.
Source: Bloomberg
In August, the price of gold rose by about 9%, indicating a recovery in demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. After a recent drop from its all-time high, the price has once again approached $4,400 per ounce.
Gold prices fell below $4,500 per ounce for the first time since February.
