Inflation in Ukraine Exceeded Forecasts: What Will Happen to Prices by the End of the Year?
Inflation in Ukraine slowed to 8.2% in May, but this figure turned out to be higher than the NBU’s previous forecasts. Despite seasonal declines in food prices, rising energy costs and increasing business expenses continue to put pressure on price trends, which could affect inflation expectations through the end of the year.
This was reported by NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy.
As Pyshnyy noted, consumer inflation slowed to 8.2% in May. The main reason was an increase in the supply of seasonal food products. At the same time, core inflation rose slightly to 7.9%.
Both indicators turned out to be higher than the National Bank’s forecasts. This is due to the effects of the significant rise in energy prices that occurred in previous months. Although inflation expectations remain stable overall, they are still elevated among certain segments of the population.
What’s Next:
The coming months: Thanks to a sufficient supply of fresh produce, inflation growth will be limited. However, upward pressure on prices will persist due to high energy costs for businesses, the hryvnia’s depreciation in recent periods, and wage growth driven by labor shortages.
By the end of the year: Inflation is expected to accelerate.
In 2027: According to the NBU’s forecasts, inflation will return to a steady slowdown. This will be supported by the stabilization of energy prices, good harvests, and the National Bank’s monetary policy measures.
As a reminder, fuel prices have been updated in Ukraine: how much do gasoline and diesel cost on June 8
The NBU explained why fuel prices in Ukraine are not falling despite the drop in oil prices.
