In recent days, a campaign has unfolded in the Ukrainian media landscape that can only be described as a “winter alert.” In just 7 to 10 days, a whole host of completely different speakers—from regional leaders to ministers, the prime minister, representatives of Ukrenergo, and industry experts—have declared, practically in unison, that the winter of 2026–2027 will be the most difficult on record. Even more difficult than the previous horrific winter, which exhausted millions of Ukrainians.
All the speakers, albeit in slightly different words, are conveying the same message: prepare for winter; it will be even worse than before; those who can—leave the cities or the country, and so on. Strangely enough, this wave of “winter threats” coincided with the start of protests in various parts of Ukraine. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence—or perhaps not.
Either way, this whole situation raises two fundamental questions: Why are we constantly being intimidated instead of being offered and provided with concrete government solutions, and what will this winter actually be like, and how can we prepare for it—other than by panicking? UA.News political analyst Mykyta Trachuk, together with experts, examined the issue.
“Fearmongers” Instead of “Hope-Mongers”: Who Benefits from Panic?
The cases mentioned above force us to seriously reflect on the nature of public statements coming from government offices and expert forums. What we’re seeing right now is a classic phenomenon described in political science as a clash between two role models: “fear-mongers” and “hope-mongers.”
The task of the latter is to sell the public a vision of a bright and successful future. They acknowledge: yes, it will be difficult, there will be challenges, but we will manage, we will get through it all, we will persevere—and therefore there is no need to panic or despair. This, in essence, is one of the key functions of public figures, of true leaders—to act, in part, as psychologists for their people, offering not just facts or instructions, but hope. To convey the understanding that this difficult path has meaning and that the state will not abandon its citizens to their fate.
But one gets the distinct impression that in modern Ukraine, “merchants of hope” have disappeared as a phenomenon. Their place has been monopolized by “merchants of fear.” They compete with one another in making gloomy predictions, driving a society already exhausted by war and uncertainty into a state of even greater anxiety and panic. Every single one of them repeats the mantra that this winter will be extremely terrifying, extremely difficult, that there will be large-scale shelling, and that if possible, it’s better to leave for a village or even abroad.
This sounds like the famous phrase attributed to Queen Marie Antoinette, who famously remarked on the hunger riots of the French commoners: “If they have no bread, let them eat cake!” In other words, this advice seems completely detached from reality and completely disregards the reality faced by millions of Ukrainians.
What are those who cannot leave supposed to do? What are the millions of men supposed to do who, out of fear of mobilization, are literally locked up within four walls and cannot even leave their apartments? What are those who are sick or have no money supposed to do? After all, will there even be enough room in the villages if all 3.5 million residents of Kyiv and 1.5 million residents of Kharkiv suddenly leave the cities? And who will work—including at vital defense plants, in infrastructure, and in the energy sector? Who will pay the taxes that fund the ministers and lawmakers who dish out foolish advice? And countless other rhetorical questions.
This is the main problem: “fearmongers” are completely unconstructive. They offer no alternatives or systemic solutions: neither how to defend against enemy attacks, nor how to build a distributed power generation system, nor how to finally end the war that is the root cause of all these problems in the first place. Of course, they don’t say outright something like “we’ll all lie down and die this winter,” but in essence, their messages boil down precisely to this sense of hopelessness and lack of prospects. Their advice to “get ready” is just empty rhetoric.
How exactly are we supposed to prepare? Why should the average person have to purchase everything necessary at their own expense and on their own, insulate their home by themselves, and build their own autonomous heating, electricity, and water supply systems? Just think about it for a moment: these are enormous financial and physical burdens for the population of a poor country. And what are those supposed to do who have neither the financial means, nor the physical strength, nor the technical knowledge for such self-sufficiency? Single mothers with young children, retirees living in prefabricated apartment buildings, large families, people with disabilities, and so on.
This brings us to the fundamental question of the social contract. Why does the state need people? The answer is clear: to pay taxes and fight wars. But what do people get in return when neither officials nor representatives of civil society offer them anything other than the ominous “get ready”? This looks like a blatant abdication of any responsibility. The scheme is simple: “Survive on your own; if you can, good for you; if not, we sympathize—but we did warn you.” This is a sham of governance against the backdrop of a total shift of responsibility from state institutions onto the shoulders of individual citizens.
All of this bears a striking resemblance to a well-thought-out political tactic—the very same “trade in fear.” When people are afraid, when they’re disoriented, nervous, and panicking, they’re much easier to control. They become more susceptible to any narrative coming from TV screens, more easily manipulated, and less inclined to think critically. Preoccupied solely with survival, they are unlikely to take to the streets to protest. And so on. These are the basics of political tactics, described in any first- or second-year political science textbook.
However, even if we set aside conspiracy theories, one question remains: where is the state in this process? Where are the professional administrators who are supposed to take responsibility? Since when has surviving the winter become solely a personal matter for each individual—as if there were no state interest in it at all? These questions, unfortunately, are rhetorical.
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Realistic Forecast for the Winter of 2026–2027: What to Prepare For
Despite all the valid questions raised above, it’s still worth taking a sober look at the reality of the situation. Outside, it’s a warm summer, and frankly, no one wants to think about the cold season in this heat. But time flies, and to avoid ending up like the characters in the famous fable about the old woman and the ant, we really need to start preparing today—as calmly and without panic as possible.
Let’s start with the weather. Of course, it’s impossible to predict it with high accuracy half a year in advance. But according to preliminary estimates by meteorologists, in a purely meteorological sense, the winter of 2027 shouldn’t be as abnormally cold as the previous one. Most likely, we’re in for a period of temperature contrasts. There may be brief but severe cold spells, which will be followed by equally noticeable warm spells. According to preliminary calculations, no prolonged periods of extreme cold are expected. This is probably the only relatively positive news.
Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. The key factor we must not forget is the war. Russia will, without a doubt, continue and intensify its attacks on energy and gas infrastructure. It has not stopped these attacks even now, but with the onset of cold weather, the intensity of the shelling is guaranteed to increase. This is part of the enemy’s deliberate tactic to destroy any semblance of normal life in Ukraine.
At the same time, the Ukrainian power grid remains in an extremely difficult, and in some cases critical, state. It’s not as if nothing is being done: repair work is ongoing. But it’s not enough, and the pace of restoration is seriously behind schedule. For example, in Kyiv, which is currently bearing the brunt of the attacks, the restoration of certain thermal power plants is significantly delayed, and it will certainly not be possible to fully restore all generating capacity by the start of winter, as planned. At best, we’re looking at reaching 50–70% of the required generation capacity. The situation is similar in Odesa and other cities.
This means that power outages will occur even if there are no new missile strikes. And we understand perfectly well that a scenario without shelling seems highly unlikely today. In the worst-case scenarios, the cities with the greatest energy shortages could be without power for several days in a row.
The situation with gas is no less dire. A shortage of at least 2 billion cubic meters is already projected. This is not a catastrophe and does not mean the automatic collapse of the entire heating system, but it is still a massive shortage that creates additional risks for getting through the heating season.
How to Prepare for the Winter of 2026–2027: A Practical Action Plan
Let’s move on to the key question: “What to do?” The simplest—and at the same time the most difficult to implement—option is to simply leave the country, at least for a few months. But it’s clear that, unfortunately, not everyone has this option. For the vast majority of Ukrainians who remain at home, you must rely first and foremost on yourself and your own resources.
It’s worth starting with what’s critically important—energy self-sufficiency. High-capacity power banks, portable charging stations, generators (if conditions and budget allow), flashlights with high-capacity batteries, and uninterruptible power supplies—these are the bare essentials that will help you survive even prolonged power outages. And here’s another very important point: summer is the ideal time for such purchases. Demand for these products is currently minimal, so they cost much less. As soon as the cold weather sets in, prices for those same charging stations and generators are guaranteed to skyrocket by 20–40%, if not more. So there’s simply no better time to invest in your own energy security than right now.
The second, equally important area is home insulation. Every little detail matters here: windows, entry and balcony doors, the roof, the attic, and the walls. The less heat that escapes from your apartment or house, the longer you’ll be able to maintain a reasonably comfortable temperature during central heating outages. If you can’t afford major exterior insulation work, consider these local solutions: window seals, heat-reflective screens and radiators, insulation for heating pipes in exposed areas—and even ordinary thick curtains can reduce heat loss.
Finally, thirdly—it’s worth giving serious thought in advance to an independent heating system. Depending on your financial and technical capabilities, this could be a solid-fuel boiler, a safe standalone gas heating system, or a combination of a powerful generator with electric heaters and thermal storage units. If you live in a high-rise building where it’s physically impossible to install a boiler, you should at least have one compact and safe autonomous heat source, such as a portable gas heater (strictly adhering to safety and ventilation rules!) and a supply of gas cylinders for it.
In addition, if there is even a theoretical possibility, you should consider temporarily relocating to a small town or village away from major cities. There, it is generally easier to set up self-sufficient living arrangements and have your own stove or solid-fuel boiler. And this offers another significant advantage: attacks on energy infrastructure and industrial facilities in remote rural areas will be either significantly fewer or nonexistent.
Expert
Opinions
Oleksiy Kucherenko, a member of parliament and first deputy chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy, Housing, and Utilities, notes: “That’s a very good question—why has everyone suddenly started talking about the extremely harsh winter that awaits us?”
“I’ve been thinking about this myself—what is this all about, and why is it so synchronized? It’s more likely just a way to shirk responsibility. All these much-hyped ‘resilience plans’ are just manipulation, because I don’t believe it’s possible to protect ourselves completely, especially from missiles and things like that. It’s a myth. Perhaps they wanted to psychologically reassure people back then, but now they realize that nothing new has happened—nothing has fundamentally changed in terms of security or preparations for the winter season. Now they’ll be looking for a scapegoat—either Svyrydenko, Klitschko, or someone else. But this is how they’re preparing the public to shift the blame and absolve themselves of responsibility. As for what people should do—I don’t know. Some people say, “Leave Kyiv.” But we understand that such advice simply has no practical value,” says Oleksiy Kucherenko.
Oleg Popenko, an energy expert and head of the Union of Utility Consumers, says: The authorities claim that a harsh winter awaits us—but such statements lack any authority.
“Any statement from the authorities along the lines of ‘get ready for a tough winter’ is an admission of their incompetence and unpreparedness. It’s like when we were kids playing ‘house.’ You’re on your own. I am absolutely certain: the authorities should be making different statements and taking different actions. They need to clearly articulate where people should go, what they should do, where to get the money for preparations, and how the authorities will help people—then it would be a more or less normal situation. But so far, we don’t see that. Instead of statements claiming that this will be the hardest winter yet—in my view, the message should be: “The enemy hasn’t stopped bombing, but we’re preparing—we’re preparing our air defense, we’re preparing for the heating season—but we understand that the enemy is treacherous, so we’re offering citizens these specific conditions and options.” That’s all.
People need to understand what to do if the situation worsens. What steps to take in an apartment building or a private home, and where to get the funds for it. At least the first five basic steps. For example, in a high-rise building: check the condition of the electrical system, replace the circuit breakers in the electrical panels, inspect the condition of the sewer and water supply networks, and so on. That would be sound advice from the authorities. And not just advice, but also a willingness to provide certain funds for this work, or an interest-free loan. But we hear and see nothing of the sort. Instead, we see some statements from certain officials. But what have they actually done?” asks Oleg Popenko.
To sum up, the winter of 2026–2027 truly promises to be very difficult—yet again. In fact, the same can be said about any time of year: it’s hard to recall a time in recent years when anything in Ukraine was even slightly easy or pleasant. But getting caught up in the panic that all the media outlets are trying to impose on us is the worst possible strategy. It’s also not worth counting solely on some abstract, favorable scenario in which the government will suddenly start saving everyone and everything.
First and foremost, you need to rely on yourself, your own strength, and the help of family and loved ones, and you should prepare for the most difficult scenario possible. And it’s best to do this right now, while it’s still warm outside, prices in stores aren’t too steep, and there’s plenty of time before the first cold snap to plan and carry out everything without rushing. A cold winter is a challenge that can only be met with a cool head.
