Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reports systemic collapse of Russian energy sector
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) has published an analytical report highlighting the systemic degradation of Russia’s energy sector. A collapse in global commodity prices, a sanctions blockade, and a record-high key interest rate set by the Russian Central Bank have triggered a chain reaction of bankruptcies, effectively resulting in the nationalisation of private assets through state-owned banks.
This was reported by the SZRU.
One illustrative example is the situation surrounding the oil group First Oil. The Russian state bank VTB initiated bankruptcy proceedings against the company due to debt amounting to $78.3 million. The company, which holds 14 million tonnes of oil reserves in Komi and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (KhMAO), was unable to refinance its loans. Its assets may now pass under state control — a process experts call “hidden nationalisation.”
The report notes that First Oil is only part of a broader wave of bankruptcies. At the end of 2025, the Belarusneft structure Yangpur went bankrupt. Earlier, the Astrakhan Oil Company and NK Gorny also faced financial collapse.
According to the intelligence service, the combination of external sanctions and internal economic problems has created a “killer cocktail” for Russia.
US and allied sanctions have forced Russian companies to sell oil at discounts of up to $30 per barrel, reducing its price below $40. Under these conditions, more than half of Russia’s oil fields are unprofitable. Total losses for extraction companies in 2025, according to SZRU, reached $7.5 billion.
One in five sector loans, totaling $35.2 billion, was restructured as companies are unable to service debts due to the Central Bank’s high key rate.
January 2026 marked a record number of defaults on the Russian stock market, with 51 bond payment failures — twice the number recorded a year earlier. Missed payments rose to 3.38 billion roubles. Overall, 11% of all corporate loans in Russia are officially classified as problematic.
The head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Alexander Shokhin, publicly acknowledged that major Russian businesses do not expect economic conditions to improve. He stated that entrepreneurs are preparing for increased fiscal pressure over the next five years, as the Kremlin requires ever more resources to fund the war.
Moreover, Russia has extremely limited potential to increase oil production, positioning it as an outsider among the world’s largest exporters of “black gold.” In contrast, leading OPEC players have significant “headroom,” giving them a powerful lever over global prices.
