The Kremlin's threats to launch Oreshnik missiles at Ukraine are driven by Putin's fears, according to the ISW
Russia’s threats to launch another “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile at Ukraine have clear political and propaganda motivations. The Kremlin is attempting to demonstrate its strength following a series of image-damaging setbacks and military failures.
According to experts, Russia suffered a series of serious reputational blows in 2026.
In particular, Ukrainian long-range strikes on St. Petersburg and other Russian cities demonstrated the vulnerability of the Russian security system and the Kremlin’s inability to fully protect its own territory.
Analysts pay particular attention to the situation surrounding the May 9 celebrations.
According to ISW, the Victory Day Parade in Moscow dealt a real blow to the Kremlin’s image, as the event was threatened with cancellation due to security concerns.
Analysts believe that a possible new missile launch is part of an information campaign aimed at demonstrating military might following the celebration of Russia Day on June 12.
During his meeting with military officials, Russian leader Vladimir Putin highlighted the army’s technological achievements, particularly in the field of:
- FPV drones;
- electronic warfare systems;
- artificial intelligence;
- modern military technologies.
At the same time, he was forced to admit that the pace of the Russian troops’ advance remains slower than expected.
“The advance is not proceeding as quickly as we would like,” Putin stated.
However, the Russian leader made no mention of Ukrainian counterattacks on certain sections of the front.
According to ISW experts, the threat of using “Oreshnik” aims to:
- divert attention from Russia’s problems on the front lines;
- demonstrate the capabilities of Russia’s missile arsenal;
- increase psychological pressure on Ukraine and its partners;
- to maintain Russia’s image as a military superpower for its domestic audience.
According to available information, Russia has already used the “Oreshnik” missile against Ukraine at least three times, including twice in 2026.
Currently, the Ukrainian military is warning of a high probability of a new launch from the Kapustin Yar test site in the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation.
According to the Air Force, the threat could materialize within the next 24 hours.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military is urging citizens to follow official announcements and not to ignore air raid sirens.
This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukraine currently lacks the technical capabilities to independently track the flight of Russia’s Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. However, the Ukrainian military receives advance information about preparations for such strikes thanks to Western partners and intelligence operations.
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