During the Center-2026 exercises, Russia may have been practicing an invasion of Kazakhstan

During the “Center-2026” military exercises in Russia’s Chelyabinsk Region, troops may have practiced a scenario involving an invasion of a Central Asian country and the establishment of a buffer zone on its territory.

According to the official narrative from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the military practiced repelling an attack in the South Ural direction, after which they launched a counteroffensive, liberated the occupied territory, and established a “security zone” in the adjacent territory.

 No specific country was named in the scenario. However, the authors of the report suggest that the description may correspond to Kazakhstan, which shares a border with the Chelyabinsk region of the Russian Federation.

The exercises, which lasted from September 28 to October 3, involved approximately 47,000 military personnel, 2,000 pieces of equipment, 90 aircraft and helicopters, as well as 77 ships and vessels. According to the scenario, four long-range aircraft carried out strikes on critical targets of a simulated enemy.

Military personnel from Belarus, China, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, and Tajikistan also joined the maneuvers. The Kremlin stated that those directly involved in the war against Ukraine did not participate in the exercises, but the experience of the war was taken into account.

Ukraine knew that Russia was working on jet-powered versions of attack drones, but did not expect the “Geran-4” and especially the “Geran-5” to enter large-scale use so quickly. This assessment was provided by Serhiy Rakhmanin, a member of parliament and a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence. According to him, the main challenge now is not only to develop an interceptor but also to make it affordable enough to launch mass production.

Since August 27, 235 air raid alerts have been recorded in Kyiv, lasting a total of 261 hours—more than 10 days. NSDC Secretary Ihor Klymenko stated that the intensity of Russian attacks has become a new challenge for Ukraine’s air defense forces. According to him, new Ukrainian interceptors are already undergoing testing, and some combat units are using them in the field. Ukraine is preparing to move to mass production of these systems.