Russia Is Unable to Replace Its Frontline Casualties Due to a Slowdown in the Recruitment of Contract Soldiers — ISW
The Russian army is facing difficulties in replenishing its ranks, as the rate of recruitment of contract soldiers is no longer sufficient to offset losses on the front lines.
According to analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, as of early July 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense had recruited approximately 195,000 contract soldiers, which is less than half of the 409,000 planned for the year.
The ISW notes that the recruitment rate continues to decline. While Russia was recruiting approximately 1,200 people per day in 2024, by mid-2026 this figure had dropped to about 1,090.
Analysts emphasize that to maintain troop levels, the Russian command has been forced to lower medical and administrative requirements for candidates, more actively recruit foreigners and students, and forcibly mobilize residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories.
At the same time, according to ISW estimates, Russian battlefield losses have exceeded the rate of troop replenishment since at least March 2026.
Experts also highlighted a statement by Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who reported that for every square kilometer of territory captured in the Donetsk region, the Russian army loses more than 400 soldiers.
According to analysts, without announcing a large-scale mobilization, it will become increasingly difficult for Russia to build up reserves to support offensive operations and compensate for losses on the front lines.
This is stated in a new report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated July 14.
As a reminder, on the night of July 15, Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down 101 of the 122 drones used by Russian troops to attack the country’s territory. This was reported by the Ukrainian Air Force.
Starting in the evening of July 14, Russian troops launched strikes on three districts in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The enemy used drones and artillery; a 53-year-old man was injured as a result of the attacks.
