The Main Intelligence Directorate warned of a possible Russian offensive against the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions this winter
Major General Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, stated that Russia could launch a new offensive in the north as early as this winter if it carries out an additional mobilization this year. According to him, the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions could be at risk of a potential offensive.
“Before the elections, they will try to show some kind of progress on those sections of the front where they can make a difference. And after that—there may be a mobilization,” he noted.
He recalled that the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, and a partial mobilization in Russia began in the second half of October 2022. Combat units capable of actually engaging in battle were on the front lines in January 2023, and some were already there in December.
“In other words, if the aggressor carries out a new wave of mobilization this year, they could assemble a powerful strike force closer to February, at the beginning of next year. And this does not rule out the possibility that the Russian command could launch such an operation in February, given Putin’s fondness for symbolic dates,” said the deputy chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.
At the same time, the timelines will depend on how many people are mobilized and whether there will be a mobilization at all.
Skibitsky emphasized that, while an offensive from the north is theoretically possible this year, “in practice, there are no conditions or indicators suggesting they are ready for this operation, and they lack the troops to carry it out.”
Source: RBC-Ukraine
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