With peace still fragile, 56% of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe — UN
More than half of the current number of refugees from Ukraine will remain in European countries by the end of 2029 if a “fragile peace with concessions” is reached this year in the war against Russia.
This is according to the findings of a study by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
Experts from the international organization modeled several possible scenarios depending on the security and economic situation.
The first analytical scenario assumes that Russia will maintain de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, provided there is stable investment in regions under Kyiv’s control.
In this scenario, temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees in the EU would expire in March 2027.
In this case, it is projected that 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of their current number) will remain in Europe at least until 2029.
The second scenario describes the continuation of the current situation and the continuation of active hostilities on the territory of our country. The consequence of a protracted conflict will be the long-term emigration of millions of Ukrainian citizens abroad.
Under the second scenario—the “status quo,” i.e., the continuation of Russian aggression—there will be 5.16 million refugees from Ukraine in Europe by the end of 2029 (99% of their current number).
The third and most optimistic scenario envisages the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity in the near future.
This would create favorable conditions for the mass return of citizens to their homeland.
Under the third scenario, which assumes a Ukrainian victory with the return of occupied territories by the end of this year, the number of refugees could drop to 32%.
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