Russia's budget deficit could exceed forecasts by more than 1 trillion rubles – Reuters
Russia’s federal budget expenditures and deficit in 2026 could exceed the officially approved figures by more than 1 trillion rubles (about $12.85 billion). This is according to data from the Russian government’s budget portal, as analyzed by Reuters.
According to the publication, the original source does not explain the reasons for the increase in spending. At the same time, Reuters speculates that this may be linked to increased funding for the war against Ukraine.
According to the forecast, Russia’s federal expenditures in 2026 will amount to 45.11 trillion rubles, while the current budget law provides for 44.07 trillion rubles. Meanwhile, the revenue forecast remains unchanged at 40.28 trillion rubles.
Based on these figures, the expected budget deficit will reach 4.83 trillion rubles, exceeding the 3.79 trillion rubles projected in the budget.
Reuters also noted that in 2025, Russia’s federal budget deficit was nearly five times higher than the official forecast, reaching 5.7 trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP—the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, in the first half of 2026, the budget deficit stood at 5.73 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP, which is 1.7 times higher than during the same period last year.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the budget deficit will “slightly” exceed the official figure; however, he said this would not require a significant increase in domestic borrowing. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Finance has postponed achieving a zero primary budget deficit until 2029.
Source: Reuters.
As a reminder, according to data from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Russian Federation spends about 47% of its national budget on waging war against Ukraine.
European intelligence agencies have prepared a classified report warning of a high probability of a large-scale banking crisis in Russia as early as 2026. The main reasons cited are the Kremlin’s massive spending on the war against Ukraine and the accumulation of non-performing loans.
Russia has begun freezing bankdeposits held by citizens of “unfriendly” countries.
