Expert urges US not to reduce military presence in Europe
In the United States, the Pentagon has begun a review of the size and deployment of American forces in Europe, while President Donald Trump is to make the final decision on the recommendations. Daniel Kochis, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, called in an op-ed for Breaking Defense for maintaining a strong US military presence on the continent.
According to the author, several options concerning troop numbers and deployment will be presented to the Secretary of War at the beginning of November. The review is to be completed at the beginning of December, after which Trump will decide whether to accept, amend, or reject the department's recommendations.
Force levels in Europe
Kochis noted that around 80,000 US military personnel are currently in Europe, both on a permanent and rotational basis. This is below the average level of permanent US presence after the end of the Cold War, which the author estimated at about 94,000 service members.
He said that the United States has three permanently stationed fighter wings in Europe and no permanently deployed strategic bombers there. Among US ships permanently based in the region, he named a command ship in Italy and five destroyers in Spain. These destroyers were regularly sent to the eastern Mediterranean for operations in the Middle East, which limited their participation in exercises with NATO allies.
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Assessment of risks for NATO
In Kochis's view, the review of the military presence is taking place at a time when European countries have not yet completed the buildup of their defense capabilities. He believes that a possible reduction in the US presence could affect NATO deterrence, particularly given the limitations on the US contribution to the Alliance's force model announced in May.
The author also stated that the Russian Federation, an aggressor state, may test the limits of NATO's response through attacks and possible plots against European infrastructure. He referred to an attack on an airport in Germany, which Berlin directly linked to Moscow, as well as the arson attack on a Polish drone manufacturing plant. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the arson was highly likely to have been a Russian act.
Chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee Roger Wicker, Kochis noted, warned that European defense spending needs time to turn into real military capabilities. He stressed the need to take into account the risk of opportunistic aggression by Russia during the review.
