Iran escalates confrontation with the US ahead of midterm elections
In Iran, authorities are intensifying confrontational actions against the United States, hoping to raise the political and economic costs of the war for US President Donald Trump ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. As Dawn reports, analysts believe Tehran is seeking to use the situation to increase pressure on Washington.
According to the outlet, the war began on February 28 after US-Israeli attacks that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not yet appeared in public, while Tehran's command structure remains not entirely clear, according to Dawn.
Trump said he believes the war could end immediately after the elections because Iran “will not be able to hold out any longer.” At the same time, AFP sources believe Tehran is counting on limited US options for further escalation ahead of the vote.
Restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran announced and later expanded a prohibited zone in the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal conditions, this route carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it struck 10 vessels that attempted to pass through the prohibited zone. The IRGC also said it struck a US military base in Jordan, calling it a response to the destruction by US forces of five Iranian oil tankers the previous day.
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CBS News reported that about eight US F-15 fighter jets sustained minor damage during Iranian strikes on Tuesday night.
Tehran's political calculation
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank, said Tehran is trying to turn the escalation into additional leverage. In her view, Iranian authorities believe that pressure in the Strait of Hormuz area and the threat of wider disruptions can exploit the United States' political and economic vulnerability ahead of the elections.
Iran's new Supreme National Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tehran would not take further steps without confidence-building measures from the United States. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi set out demands for ending the war, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the unfreezing of about $24 billion in Iranian assets.
Experts also warn that Iran may be overestimating the level of escalation Washington is willing to allow. According to the report, the country is experiencing an economic crisis, while the suppression of protests in January resulted in the deaths of thousands of people.
