US commission investigates ex-congressman Kinzinger’s bets on pardon — The Hill

In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched an investigation into transactions on the Kalshi prediction platform that, according to The Hill, are linked to former Republican congressman from Illinois Adam Kinzinger. The bets concerned whether he would receive a pardon from then-US President Joe Biden.

Transactions on Kalshi

Politico, citing three people familiar with the matter, reported that an account allegedly linked to Kinzinger conducted transactions from December 2024 to January 2025. Screenshots provided to Decrypt indicate that Kinzinger earned $823 on about 25 trades, although he mostly incurred losses.

A Kalshi source told The Hill that the company provided the CFTC with data on the account and transactions and described the review as “very routine.” According to the publication’s source, the platform made several attempts to contact Kinzinger by phone and email regarding the investigation and the subsequent notification of the regulator.

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Kinzinger’s position

Kinzinger told Politico that he had not received any communications from either the CFTC or Kalshi. He stated that at the time he placed the bets, he had not worked in Congress for two years and had no non-public information. According to him, Kalshi’s rules prohibit users from influencing an event’s outcome or using non-public information.

The former congressman also stated that he had not discussed a possible pardon with anyone, including people connected to the White House. In early 2025, Biden pardoned Kinzinger along with members of the House of Representatives committee that investigated the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

In March, Kalshi introduced new restrictions intended to prevent politicians, athletes, and other people directly connected to relevant events from trading on certain markets. The company declined to comment, citing the ongoing investigation. The CFTC did not promptly respond to The Hill’s request.