Lukashenko continues to resist pressure from the Kremlin regarding the war against Ukraine, according to the ISW
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to pressure Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, demanding that Minsk become more actively involved in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, the Belarusian leader is trying to avoid directly dragging his country into hostilities while maintaining the Kremlin’s support.
According to analysts, a telling example of this policy was the recent incident involving relay stations, when Lukashenko effectively made a decision that did not align with Russia’s interests.
As experts note, Moscow is demanding that Minsk allow Russian drones to be launched from Belarusian territory and facilitate the opening of a new front in western Ukraine.
If this scenario were to unfold, Ukraine would be forced to redeploy some of its forces from the current front line to strengthen its defenses along the border with Belarus.
In addition, according to the ISW, Russia is applying financial pressure by threatening to cut off support for Belarus if Minsk refuses to comply with the Kremlin’s demands.
At the same time, Russian authorities continue to promote the narrative of an alleged threat to Belarus from Ukraine and promise to ensure its protection.
Analysts believe that Minsk’s reaction to recent statements by Ukrainian leadership indicates Lukashenko’s reluctance to fully drag the country into the war.
The self-proclaimed president of Belarus is trying to maintain the Kremlin’s support while at the same time preventing the loss of what remains of the state’s sovereignty.
In particular, since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Lukashenko has refused to allow the Belarusian army to be drawn into combat operations against Ukraine and has not agreed to the mass conscription of Belarusian citizens into the Russian army.
He and Belarusian officials also largely avoid the Kremlin’s rhetoric about an alleged threat from Ukraine, which Moscow actively uses to justify its own aggressive policies.
The ISW has concluded that Lukashenko continues to delay fulfilling the Kremlin’s demands for Belarus’s more active participation in the war.
“Lukashenko continues to delay fulfilling Moscow’s demands for Belarus’s more active participation in the war, while attempting to make relatively neutral statements regarding Ukraine,” concluded analysts at the Institute for the Study of War.
Experts believe that this strategy allows the Belarusian leadership to balance its dependence on Russia with its desire to avoid directly dragging the country into a full-scale military conflict.
This is stated in an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that relay stations are located on Belarusian territory, which, according to him, help Russian drones attack Ukraine. He publicly called on Alexander Lukashenko to dismantle this infrastructure within a week; otherwise, as the president said, Ukraine would act on its own.
The Belarusian democratic opposition submitted a report to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserting that Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is systematically preparing the country for possible direct participation in the war against Ukraine.
Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, announced a planned meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and a lengthy trip abroad just a few days before the deadline set by Ukraine’s ultimatum was set to expire.
