Prediction markets outpace official macroeconomic statistics
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly providing forecasts earlier than traditional models — they continuously incorporate market expectations rather than waiting for official reports to be released.
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According to Keyrock, Polymarket’s forecast accuracy reaches 90–95%, and by the Brier score it surpasses classical polls and prediction methods. Hedge funds are already using these platforms as sources of real consensus and early signals of macroeconomic turns.
This highlights the rapid advancement of prediction markets as a new economic analysis tool and their potential influence on investors’ decision-making processes going forward.
