Russia plans to alter Belarus' demographic composition through Russian migration

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service has reported on Moscow’s systematic efforts to resettle loyal but moderate Russian citizens to Belarus. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russians have accounted for about 90% of the migration flow to the neighboring country. 

The strategy involves creating intolerable conditions in Russia for the liberal-minded population, forcing them to leave in a controlled direction. In the long term, these migrants are expected to form a critical mass of the indigenous Russian population that will require protection from the Kremlin.

To encourage emigration, the Russian State Duma has passed repressive laws, including one criminalizing the denial of the genocide of the Soviet people. Additional triggers include internet blockades, penalties for spreading disinformation about the military, and the absence of free elections. On social media, Belarus is actively promoted as a relatively free territory, similar to the Baltic republics during the Soviet era. In this way, Russia simultaneously rids itself of dissenting citizens within the country and cements its political and cultural influence over Belarus to finally resolve the Belarusian issue.