Russia's bond market is heading toward a wave of defaults — intelligence report
The Russian corporate bond market is rapidly heading toward a massive wave of defaults amid a deteriorating economic situation caused by the war against Ukraine and a protracted economic crisis.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
The SFS notes that due to the decline in returns on bank deposits, Russians have begun investing heavily in bonds in hopes of earning higher returns; however, an increasing number of experts are warning of the risk of losing savings.
“According to analysts’ estimates, about 25% of the Russian bond market is already at risk of default. This means that a significant portion of investors may receive neither interest nor a return on their investments in the event of the bankruptcy of the issuing companies,” the Foreign Intelligence Service notes.
According to its data, the trend toward rising defaults in Russia is intensifying: in the first quarter of 2026 alone, 11 bankruptcies were recorded among companies that had issued bonds (the same number of defaults occurred in all of 2024, and in 2025, there were already 24).
“Experts attribute the sharp deterioration of the situation to the consequences of the war and Russia’s economic exhaustion. The Russian Central Bank’s high key rate makes loans for businesses excessively expensive, while tax pressure, rising VAT, and falling consumer demand only deepen the crisis. In 2026, Russian companies will also have to repay up to 6.6 trillion rubles in debt, placing a critical strain on their finances,” the report notes.
The Russian government has cutits economic growth forecast for this year by two-thirds.
The Russian economy is already falling, and banks are preparing for a wave of defaults
The Russian economy ended the first quarter of 2026 with a decline for the first time in three years
