Russia escalates warning as Trump considers sale of Tomahawks to Ukraine - WP

A top Russian Foreign Ministry official cautioned President Donald Trump’s administration Wednesday against giving Ukraine access to long-range Tomahawk missiles that could hit targets deep within Russia in the latest in a series of warnings that suggest a degree of annoyance in Moscow toward the U.S. leader.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also declared that the boost toward resolving the conflict in Ukraine provided by Trump’s August meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska had been “largely exhausted.” The last few weeks have seen Trump considering the sale of new weapons to Ukraine and criticizing Russia as a “paper tiger” - Washington Post.

The latest warning was part of a concerted Russian effort to deter Trump against enabling Ukraine access to the missiles, repeating a tactic Moscow has used throughout its war on Ukraine, declaring that providing advanced military technology to Ukraine would provoke a direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries.

Since Trump’s election, however, Moscow has directed most of its ire against European leaders whom it portrays as warmongers to blame for the continued war, while directing consistently positive comments toward the U.S. president.

The U.S. administration has not even said if it would sell the Tomahawks to Ukraine, although Trump said on Monday that he had “sort of” made a decision but wanted to know how Kyiv would use the weapons.

Tomahawks have a range of up to 1,550 miles, depending on the variant, compared to around 190 miles for ATACM missiles, which were provided to Kyiv by the Biden administration.

“I think I want to find out what they’re doing with them,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “Where are they sending them? I guess I’d have to ask that question.”

The repeated warnings from Putin and other officials indicate Moscow’s anxiety over the possibility that Ukraine gets access to weapons, and appear to contradict Putin’s assertion last Thursday at a Russian foreign policy conference that the missiles “won’t change the balance of power on the battlefield.”

Putin warned that the weapons would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation” because Ukraine could not fire them without the U.S. personnel. He suggested, however, that Trump would ultimately decide against their provision because he knew how to listen.

Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Wednesday that Putin appeared to have “moved on” from the Alaska summit, now issuing strong warnings to Trump instead of merely placating him.

Ryabkov, she said on X, had now “drawn a firm line” with his comment that the momentum for resolving the Ukraine conflict had dissipated after the Alaska summit.

With Trump considering the Tomahawk question, “Moscow sees the situation as critical,” she said. “Moscow warns Trump about a more acute confrontation and expects him to make what it considers the ‘right’ choice.”

In his remarks to journalists Wednesday, Ryabkov also pointed out that U.S. personnel would be needed to operate the Tomahawk missiles.

“As you understand, without software and launchers, the missiles themselves are just blanks. Accordingly, as has also been stated at a high level by the Russian side, the hypothetical use of such systems is only possible with the direct involvement of American personnel,” Ryabkov said.

Speaking to journalists on Wednesday, he warned of “the depth and severity of the consequences” that supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine would have.

“Naturally, we urge the U.S. leadership and the U.S. military to take a sober, reasonable, responsible approach to this situation,” he said. “Sadly, I have to say that the powerful impetus of the Anchorage meeting in favor of agreements has turned out to be exhausted to a significant extent by adversaries’ efforts,” Ryabkov continued, blaming the “destructive actions” of European leaders.

Andrei Kartapolov, head of the parliament’s defense committee and a former deputy defense minister, said Russia knew how to shoot these missiles down and would target any launchers it detected on Ukrainian soil.

“Our response will be tough, ambiguous, measured, and asymmetrical. We will find ways to hurt those who cause us trouble,” he told the state RIA news agency on Wednesday. “The only problems will be for those who supply them and those who use them; that’s where the problems will be.”

Russian state television anchor Olga Skabeyeva called Trump’s comment that he may provide Ukraine with Tomahawks an “unprecedented escalation,” saying that this could prompt Germany to offer Kyiv Taurus missiles. Co-host Yevgeny Popov said if Trump did give Ukraine Tomahawks, it would be “Trump’s war” and someone else would win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Speaking on the same program, deputy chairman of parliament’s defense committee, Andrei Zhuravlyov, said if Ukraine was provided the missiles, Russia should attack the Rzeszow military air base in Poland — a hub for deliveries of Western weapons systems to Ukraine.

“We need to show them that we’re ready. You want an escalation? It’s your problem, not ours,” he said in comments reported by Russia Media Monitor.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also warned Monday against the “new escalation” of providing Kyiv access to Tomahawks, even while asserting they would not help Ukraine’s military position.

“But here, of course, it is important to realize that we are talking about missiles that can also be nuclear, so this is indeed a serious escalation,” he warned.

Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News late last month that Trump had authorized Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes with U.S.-made weapons, adding that “there are no such things as sanctuaries.”

“This is where I think they have the opportunity to challenge Russia much more aggressively,” he said.

If Trump does green-light Ukraine to get Tomahawks, it would mark a significant shift in his policy on the war, depending on what restrictions Washington placed on their use. He has so far focused on trying to end the war and normalize relations with Russia, first calling on both sides to agree to a ceasefire — a demand accepted by Ukraine but repeatedly deflected by Russia — before meeting Putin in Alaska, where he abruptly abandoned his strategy of pressing for a ceasefire.

Trump has expressed increasing frustration with Putin, particularly in relation to Russia’s strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine, and last week said he believed that Ukraine was capable of winning back the land it had lost and that Russia “should have stopped” the war.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, at least 1,945 Russian military objects lie within range of the 1,550-mile variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 could be reached by the 1,000-mile variant.

“Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations,” the group said in a battlefield update on Sunday.

Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote Tuesday that Moscow had ushered in “a new and more dangerous phase” of the war after its failed summer offensive and the sharp deterioration in its economy. He warned that Russia’s behavior would probably grow more risky and aggressive “unless it faces unacceptable costs.”

“The strategic context of the war is thus shifting. Russia’s summer offensive has failed at enormous cost in troops. Its diplomatic strategy for America has fallen short. It faces a slow tsunami of European defense spending and growing strains at home,” he wrote. “Russia can now prevail only if it prevents them from turning their collective latent strength into usable superiority by undermining their resolve.”