The Russian stock market began the week with a sharp decline, falling to its lowest levels since last November. Analysts attribute the crash to statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding possible strikes on “decision-making centers” in Ukraine and Kyiv.
At the close of trading on Monday, the Moscow Exchange Index lost 1.05% and fell to 2,598 points. During the trading session, the index dropped to its lowest level since November 2025.
Russian analysts note that a new wave of sell-offs began after statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding possible strikes on “decision-making centers” and command posts in Ukraine.
In addition, the Russian Foreign Ministry urged foreigners to leave Kyiv, stating that Moscow’s “cup of patience” was allegedly “overflowing.”
Against this backdrop, shares of Russia’s largest energy companies continued to decline. Specifically:
Rosneft shares fell by 2.6% and hit their lowest levels since February;
Gazprom shares lost 0.8% and are trading at their lowest levels since November 2025;
Novatek’s shares dropped by nearly 4%.
Russian financial strategists point to growing market jitters and a lack of stable demand even after local dips.
Since the start of the year, the Moscow Exchange index has already lost 6.5%, and the Russian market’s capitalization has shrunk by nearly 400 billion rubles.
It is telling that the decline is occurring even despite rising global oil prices due to the situation surrounding Iran. The price of Russian Urals crude rose to its highest levels since 2014, but this did not help the Russian market shift to growth.
Analysts attribute the negative trend to the deterioration of the Russian economy and the lack of progress in negotiations regarding the war against Ukraine.
According to Rosstat, Russia’s GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter—the first decline since 2023. Twenty-one out of 28 key industrial sectors reported losses.
In May, the Russian government also cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 by two-thirds—to 0.4%. Moscow expects a further decline in investment for the second year in a row.
Financial experts acknowledge that the situation on the stock market reflects the accumulation of systemic problems in the Russian economy, which are already outweighing the positive effect of high commodity prices.
Russia continues its massive attacks on Ukrainian territory, particularly on civilian infrastructure. Strikes on Kyiv may be part of a broader Russian summer plan aimed at weakening and suppressing Ukrainian resistance. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry also made statements about possible new attacks on the Ukrainian capital.
Currently, there are no signs that Russian troops are preparing for another massive strike on Ukrainian territory, and the Kremlin’s threats appear to be a reaction to the lack of positive developments on the front lines and the public outcry in Russia over Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries.