The Russia-Belarus Union Faces New Tensions — Bloomberg
The close political and military alliance between Moscow and Minsk is facing yet another test amid Alexander Lukashenko’s reluctance to deepen Belarus’s involvement in Vladimir Putin’s military campaign against Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. It is noted that tensions within the alliance are intensifying.
After publicly warning Russian officials against attempts to drag his country into hostilities, the Belarusian leader held two days of talks with the Russian president at the residence on Lake Valdai. The need to defend his position became more acute on Thursday, when Lukashenko, during a meeting with Russian representatives—Ambassador Boris Gryzlov and Governor Andrei Vorobyov—acknowledged that pressure was being exerted by Russia, but he explicitly told them that Minsk maintains a peaceful stance and does not wish to go to war with the Ukrainians.
Although Belarus is politically and economically dependent on the Kremlin and provided its territory for the initial invasion in 2022, analysts view Lukashenko’s current maneuvering as a serious crisis point for bilateral relations and a good opportunity for the West to distance Minsk from Moscow.
The situation is unfolding against the backdrop of ever-increasing military integration between the two countries, including the deployment in Belarus of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and the “Oreshnik” missile system, which is forcing Kyiv to warn of the threat of a new offensive from the north. Despite these tensions, the leaders of Ukraine and Belarus are taking behind-the-scenes steps to mitigate risks: following Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ultimatum, the Belarusian side promptly shut down border navigation equipment that had been assisting Russian drones, and Lukashenko himself confirmed to Gryzlov that he had secretly received a Ukrainian delegation in Minsk.
While the Russian army faces logistical difficulties due to Ukrainian strikes on the front lines, Putin is publicly demonstrating restraint, stating that he has not discussed the conflict in detail with his Belarusian counterpart, and is once again offering Belarus as a venue for future negotiations with Ukraine.
Lukashenko also received assurances from Xi Jinping regarding support for the republic’s sovereignty, and has also begun behind-the-scenes talks with Washington, releasing some political prisoners in exchange for the lifting of certain U.S. sanctions against Belarusian fertilizers, as he seeks to preserve his regime amid Putin’s apparent failures, the agency notes.
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