Rivalry in the Red Sea confronts Africa with a choice — Premium Times Nigeria
Competition among Gulf states for ports, security partnerships and infrastructure in the Red Sea region could create opportunities for African countries to attract investment, but it also threatens to deepen geopolitical fragmentation. This is stated in an analysis by Premium Times Nigeria.
The article’s author links the tensions to several crises: U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, renewed Houthi attacks on shipping routes, rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Horn of Africa, as well as differences among African states over sovereignty and regional influence.
Ports and access to the sea
Landlocked Ethiopia seeks to reduce its dependence on Djibouti. The port of Berbera in Somaliland has become an important option thanks to investments by the Emirati logistics company DP World in the port, an economic zone and a transport corridor to Ethiopia.
Following the 2024 memorandum of cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Ethiopia and Somalia reaffirmed respect for each other’s territorial integrity in the Ankara Declaration, mediated by Türkiye. The parties agreed to negotiate Ethiopia’s commercial access to the sea under Somalia’s sovereignty.
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Regional alliances
Egypt has moved closer to Saudi Arabia amid its long-standing rivalry with Ethiopia. According to the author, tensions rose after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was put into operation in September 2025 and Ethiopia revived plans to build three more dams on the Blue Nile. Cairo opposes Addis Ababa’s unilateral control over the waters of the Blue Nile and is strengthening ties with Eritrea.
Sudan is of strategic importance because of the war and the location of Port Sudan, which is an important entry point for weapons, logistical resources and personnel. The UAE denies accusations of supporting Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia generally support closer ties with the Sudanese Armed Forces.
The European Union maintains a maritime presence in the region through Operations ASPIDES and ATALANTA, and is also building the capacities of maritime law enforcement agencies and the coast guard in Somalia. In the author’s view, African states can either coordinate engagement with external powers for joint development or continue bilateral arrangements that provide short-term benefits but may narrow their room for manoeuvre.
