The world must prepare for new heat waves and extreme weather due to the "super" El Niño, according to Politico
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of a high probability of a strong El Niño event forming, which could lead to new temperature records, extreme weather events, and an intensification of the effects of global warming.
According to experts, the probability of El Niño developing between June and August is 80%, rising to 90%by November.
El Niño is the warm phase of the natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean. Its occurrence traditionally leads to a temporary rise in global temperatures, which compounds the long-term warming caused by climate change.
In addition to heat, the phenomenon affects rainfall patterns in various regions of the world, causing widespread flooding, heavy rains, droughts, and other weather anomalies.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized: “El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of global warming.”
He urged governments to view the situation as a serious warning.
“The world must treat this as the urgent climate warning that it is,” he added.
The WMO warns that a new El Niño cycle could significantly impact agriculture, electricity production, and global food security.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted:
“Extreme heat is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face. The El Niño phenomenon could, on average, exacerbate this threat.”
According to her, potential consequences could include an increase in heat-related illnesses, the spread of dangerous infectious diseases, increased pressure on food and water resources, and further complications for regions already suffering from climate-related challenges.
Saulo emphasized: “An increase in heat-related illnesses, the wider spread of vector-borne diseases, increased pressure on food and water systems, and communities that are already struggling will be pushed even further beyond their limits.”
Experts note that the current phenomenon could turn out to be particularly powerful. Although the WMO does not officially use the term “super El Niño,” some predictive models suggest the possibility of precisely such a scenario.
El Niño is considered very strong if the ocean surface temperature in a key region of the Pacific Ocean exceeds the norm by more than 2 degrees Celsius.
A similar situation was already observed during the 2015–2016 cycle. According to data from European meteorological centers, the current El Niño may also exceed this threshold.
It is worth noting that the 2023 El Niño was among the five strongest on record and was one of the factors that made 2024 the hottest year on record globally.
Experts are already warning that the new cycle could contribute to new temperature records in 2027.
According to WMO forecasts, the effects of El Niño will vary by region.
An increased risk of heavy rains and flooding is expected in the southern U.S. states, parts of South America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia.
At the same time, droughts may threaten Australia, parts of Latin America, the Caribbean, South Asia, and Indonesia.
For Europe, the exact impact of the phenomenon is harder to predict at this time due to its distance from the Pacific Ocean.
Despite the risks, the WMO emphasizes that timely preparation and effective early warning systems can help minimize the consequences.
“El Niño does not necessarily spell disaster,” concluded Celeste Saulo.
This was reported by POLITICO.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an official warning calling on the global community to prepare for the inevitable return of the large-scale climate phenomenon El Niño. According to meteorologists, the probability of this natural phenomenon—which traditionally causes a sharp rise in global temperatures and triggers abnormal weather events—is already 80% by September and will reach 90% by November of this year.
The UN has also recognized the right of refugees to seek asylum due to global warming.
As a reminder, the Swiss Glacier Gris has confirmed the threat of global warming.
