The Central Bank of Russia has urged people not to expect an improvement in the economic situation
Despite the sharp rise in oil prices, the Russian economy will not receive a significant boost for recovery, according to the Central Bank.
The regulator has raised its forecast for the average oil price in 2026 from $45 to $65 per barrel. This is expected to generate approximately $58 billion in additional export revenue: total revenue could reach $485 billion, and the trade surplus could reach $155 billion.
However, these additional revenues will have almost no impact on economic growth. According to the Central Bank’s estimates, Russia’s GDP will grow by only 0.5–1.5% in 2026.
The population will likely continue to live frugally: consumption will grow by only 0.5–1.5% after 3.6% last year. Businesses also do not expect a significant increase in investment—the volume will remain roughly at the previous year’s level.
Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina stated that economic activity in Russia is slowing down, and the conflict in the Middle East is creating additional inflationary risks.
According to her, the war could lead to a slowdown in the global economy, rising logistics and energy costs, accelerating inflation, and higher interest rates worldwide.
Additional oil revenues are expected to be directed to the National Welfare Fund through the budget rule mechanism, which effectively neutralizes their impact on the economy.
After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war costs, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that until recently seemed resilient to sanctions.
Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.
