The Kremlin is preparing three scenarios for the course of the war in Ukraine
The Center for Countering Disinformation stated that the Kremlin lacks a unified plan of action and is considering at least three scenarios for the war against Ukraine. These include the continuation of hostilities, a possible “freezing” of the conflict, and the option of hybrid aggression against NATO countries.
This was stated by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation.
The first scenario is the continuation of full-scale war until at least 2028. Russia is currently banking on a spring-summer offensive this year.
However, such a scenario is impossible without a new wave of mobilization in Russia, says the head of the Center.
"A dead end caused by the generals"
The second option is a gradual “drift” toward a ceasefire and a frozen conflict.
The groundwork for this is already being laid: Kremlin propagandists are shaping the narrative that Kremlin leader Putin was poorly informed about the situation on the front lines, and that the war “reached a dead end due to the actions of generals who lied.”
Hybrid aggression against NATO
"The third scenario is the continuation of the war against Ukraine with a parallel transition to a hybrid war against NATO closer to 2028. This could involve aggressive actions against the Baltic states," Kovalenko stated.
Specific tools Moscow is considering:
drone strikes on the Baltic states;
deploying small sabotage groups—20 people each—to carry out operations on their territories;
information pressure surrounding the topic of "NATO military factories that threaten Russia."
At the same time, Russia is pushing a bill that would allow the use of the army in other countries for the so-called “protection of Russian citizens.”
The Kremlin called onthe U.S. to cooperate even before the war ended.
The Kremlin did not congratulate Magyar on his victory and called Hungary an unfriendly country.
As a reminder, according to the results of 98.93% of the votes counted, the Fidesz party won 69.35% of the vote. This gives the opposition 138 seats in parliament, allowing it to form a constitutional majority on its own.
Trump declined to comment on the defeat of his friend Orbán in the Hungarian elections.
