Analysis highlights growing territorial losses and risk of frontline breakthrough
An assessment of the situation on the battlefield suggests that Ukraine’s territorial losses over the past year have increased compared with the previous period. The analysis notes that the gap between lost and recaptured territories has widened, indicating a deterioration in dynamics across several frontline sectors.
According to the estimates cited, the difference recorded between 2023 and 2024 amounted to around 110 square kilometres to Ukraine’s disadvantage, while the comparison between 2024 and 2025 shows a negative balance of roughly 1,700 square kilometres. This trend is interpreted as evidence that, despite counterattacks and local offensive actions, overall losses remain higher than regained territory.
Concerns are also expressed about the possibility of a breakthrough on certain sections of the frontline should vulnerable areas be identified. It is noted that the expansion of active combat zones forces Ukrainian forces to continually respond across multiple directions, complicating the ability to form strategic reserves.
The analysis further points to declining mobilisation capacity and a reduction in available reserves due to ongoing losses, which is seen as an additional factor weakening defensive potential. Overall, the situation is described as one that may require significant adjustments and stronger strategic measures to prevent further deterioration.
