Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has recently spoken of a “possible end to the war in Ukraine.” These remarks come amid serious problems facing the Russian army, both on the front lines and in the rear.
The Guardian reports on this, analyzing the reasons behind the Kremlin’s shift in rhetoric.
According to journalists, one of the key reasons is Russia’s gradual loss of the initiative on the battlefield. While the occupiers previously demonstrated slow progress and created the impression that Ukraine’s defeat was inevitable, the situation has now changed.
In particular, the Ukrainian forces’ recapture of Kupiansk in December came as a surprise to Western analysts, as the Kremlin had previously claimed to have seized the city. Additionally, Russian troops faced serious communication issues after access to Starlink and Telegram was restricted for military personnel.
According to the publication, this allowed the Ukrainian Defense Forces to retake a number of positions and recapture over 100 square kilometers of territory in the Zaporizhzhia region. In April, Russia suffered net territorial losses for the first time since August 2024.
Another factor was the significant losses of Russian personnel. The article notes that in recent months, the number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded has exceeded the rate of mobilization.
“In March and April, about 35,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded. The main reason is drone strikes,” the article states.
Economist Janis Klug has calculated that in 2026, Russia will mobilize between 800 and 1,000 people daily, or about 24,000–30,000 per month. Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev confirmed that over 80,000 people joined the army in the first quarter.
The Guardian pays special attention to Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries. It is precisely these attacks on energy infrastructure, according to the journalists, that are putting increasing pressure on the Russian economy.
The article notes that in March, oil exports brought Russia only $19 billion, while the Kremlin needs nearly $1 billion daily to wage the war.
The authors cite the rapid development of Ukrainian drone technology as another reason. Ukraine is becoming less dependent on Western aid and is actively developing its own production of drones and interceptor missiles.
“Drones are striking targets thousands of kilometers from the front lines,” the publication writes, citing attacks on Russian enterprises in Perm.
It is also reported that Ukraine has already begun exporting its own technologies to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
The Guardian cites the diplomatic factor and Putin’s desire to influence U.S. President Donald Trump’s position as the fifth reason for the shift in the Kremlin’s rhetoric.
According to the publication, the Kremlin wants to convince Washington to pressure Kyiv into making concessions regarding Donbas. At the same time, as the journalists emphasize, Moscow is not showing any real willingness to end the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on Putin’s statements, noted:
“We gave him a little nudge, and we’ve been preparing for these meetings for a long time, so we need to find a format. We need to end this war and reliably guarantee security.”
At the same time, experts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that despite the loud statements, the Kremlin has not sent any signal of readiness to stop the aggression against Ukraine.