The world risks being left without accurate forecasts due to the U.S. decision
Scientists warn that the potential shutdown of the U.S. ocean monitoring system could seriously compromise the accuracy of weather forecasts and climate models, particularly regarding El Niño. Researchers say the world risks losing critically important data that currently serves as the “eyes” of the ocean and impacts the economy and security.
The Trump administration’s plans to potentially cut or eliminate parts of the U.S. ocean observation system have raised serious concerns among scientists, who warn: this could undermine the quality of climate forecasts and early warning systems for dangerous natural phenomena. Experts note that this involves a complex network of observation systems — robotic buoys, moored platforms, underwater gliders, and research vessels that collect data on ocean conditions around the world, including the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean.
It is this data that enables weather forecasting, monitoring of ocean warming, and prediction of phenomena such as El Niño, which affects the climate in various regions of the planet. “The quality of forecasts and early warning systems for storms, tropical cyclones, and El Niño could deteriorate to dangerous levels,” emphasized Sabrina Speich, an expert on global ocean monitoring.
According to scientists, the ocean observation system is now a critically important part of the global climate infrastructure, as the ocean absorbs most of the planet’s excess heat.
Researchers warn that if this data is lost, errors in estimates of ocean warming could increase significantly, and forecasts will become less accurate. “The ocean’s heat capacity is the most reliable indicator of climate change we have… vertical temperature profiles are among the simplest measurements we can take,” Spatch explained.
Scientists specifically emphasize that data losses from the U.S. system could be so significant that it would be as if the world had simultaneously lost up to 80% of all global ocean observations.
This, they say, will have not only scientific consequences but also a direct impact on the economy—from agriculture to the insurance market and disaster response systems. “Forecasts will continue, but their quality will deteriorate, sometimes to dangerous levels,” the expert noted, emphasizing that without ocean data, it is impossible to effectively predict storms and climate fluctuations.
Scientists are urging that we prevent the loss of a system that effectively provides the world with basic information about the state of the ocean—one of the planet’s main climate regulators. The Guardian reports on this, citing research by an international group of scientists.
