Russia does not have the capacity for a major war in the Baltic region
Russia is trying to intimidate Europe with talk of war, but it lacks the actual resources for a large-scale offensive against the Baltic states. The Center for Countering Disinformation says this is part of an information campaign. Until 2028, Russia will not be able to wage a full-scale war in this region.
Russia is actively hyping up the possibility of a conflict with the Baltic states, but this is more about pressure and fear than actual military plans. This was stated by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.
According to him, Moscow is using hybrid methods—ranging from provocations in airspace to high-profile statements in the media. This includes, in particular, instances where Russian military aircraft enter the airspace of neighboring countries, as well as disinformation campaigns regarding alleged “Western plans to seize Kaliningrad.” “This is part of an information campaign. Such ‘information noise’ is needed to scare Europeans and shift the blame for a possible escalation onto the West,” Kovalenko explained.
The Center for Strategic and Political Studies emphasizes: despite aggressive rhetoric, Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a full-scale war in the Baltic states. According to the center’s estimates, the situation will not change until at least 2028. “By 2028, Russia will not have the resources for a full-scale war in the Baltics,” Kovalenko stressed.
At the same time, he noted that hybrid actions are already underway and may intensify. This refers not only to military incidents but also to disinformation spread through the media and social networks.
Previously, Russian propaganda also spread false claims that the Baltic states and Poland had allegedly allowed Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russian territory. The Center for Public Diplomacy calls such statements baseless and part of the same information campaign.
The Center urges people not to fall for such reports and to view them as a form of pressure rather than a sign of actual escalation.
Russian occupiers are storming Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in three regions at once
As a reminder, agents of the “ATESH” movement carried out another successful sabotage operation behind Russian occupiers’ lines. This time, their target was a substation in the Voronezh region; its destruction disrupted the supply of Russian troops in the Kharkiv direction.
According to the DeepState monitoring project, Russian troops were able to advance near two villages in the Sumy community close to the state border over the past 24 hours.
In Zaporizhzhia, the occupiers seized a church and banned worshippers from praying.
