In early August, Ukrainian grain exports fell by 30%
The suspension of the maritime corridor at the end of July led to a significant reduction in grain exports from Ukraine. Between August 1 and 12, Ukraine exported 590,000 metric tons of grain, which accounts for about 30% of the required volume.
“From August 1 to 12, we exported 590,000 metric tons. That’s about 30% of the required volume. We expect to be able to reach 50% in the future… with all the corresponding effects on international balances,” the minister said.
According to Vysotsky, Ukraine has the capacity to partially increase exports; however, without the resumption of operations at Black Sea ports, export volumes will not exceed 50% of the country’s needs.
Additional difficulties have arisen due to the drought on the Danube. Currently, this route cannot operate at full capacity. According to the minister’s assessment, it will be possible to reach a level of approximately 1.5 million metric tons of monthly exports via the Danube toward the end of the year.
A separate problem may be the lack of grain storage capacity.
Currently, Ukraine has sufficient permanent grain storage facilities; however, after the corn harvest in November, a shortage of 8 to 11 million metric tons may arise.
The government plans to offset the shortfall by using temporary grain storage facilities. According to Vysotsky, Ukraine has already appealed to its international partners to finance the construction of these facilities. The required funding is estimated at $10 million.
At the same time, the minister emphasized that it is currently difficult to predict how quickly Ukraine will be able to resume maritime exports.
This was announced by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky at a briefing in Kyiv on Friday.
In August–October, Ukraine may be unable to supply approximately 9 million metric tons of agricultural products to foreign markets due to limited export capacity. This threatens to delay foreign exchange earnings totaling between $1.9 billion and $2.8 billion.
Ukraine is considering the possibility of transporting grain by rail through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanța as a safer alternative to maritime exports. Kyiv has already appealed to Chișinău to establish a reduced tariff for such shipments.
As a reminder, grain exports from Ukraine could fall by more than half.
