Pakistan’s regulator conditionally approves $58bn energy plan through 2035
In Pakistan, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has conditionally approved the Integrated System Plan ISP-2025, which provides for about $58 billion in investment in electricity generation and transmission over 2025–2035. As Dawn reports, members of the regulator raised reservations about the selection of major projects and the procedure for approving the document.
In its 45-page decision, Nepra said it was approving the plan within the revised base recommended scenario of IGCEP-2025 and the updated Transmission System Expansion Plan TSEP-2025. Battery energy storage systems (BESS), as well as a K-Electric transmission line planned for 2028, were excluded from the decision.
The regulator did not authorize $900 million in investment in BESS until a comprehensive feasibility study is conducted. It must determine the need for such systems, their optimal capacity, method of use and economic feasibility.
Reservations about the procedure
All three Nepra members, including the authority’s chairman, prepared separate reservations or advisory opinions totaling more than 12 pages. They questioned the grounds for including and excluding certain major projects and also drew attention to bypassing the Council of Common Interests, a constitutional body that considers issues of national energy policy and planning.
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Nepra stated that changes to the National Electricity Policy or the National Electricity Plan cannot be adopted by a technical committee or energy department without referring the matter to the Council of Common Interests. The regulator also recorded conflicting statements by the Independent System and Market Operator and the Power Planning and Monitoring Company regarding data and the plan’s impact on tariffs.
Capacity and networks
A low-demand-growth scenario, or a scenario without significant changes, was selected as the basis for planning. It provides for the commissioning of 26,045 MW of generation capacity: 17,485 MW have already been approved, while another 8,560 MW were identified through optimization. At the same time, 2,577 MW of existing capacity are planned to be retired, which is expected to bring total installed capacity to 62,657 MW. The figure also includes 8,120 MW of net metering.
The cost of additional generation capacity is estimated at $47.08 billion. The plan provides $4.6 billion for ongoing or approved electricity transmission projects and about $6.05 billion for new network expansion projects. It also provides for a 40-MW local power plant for the Gwadar and Makran region due to disruptions in electricity imports from Iran and the impracticality of extending the national grid to the region.
Nepra instructed that the plan’s impact on final consumer tariffs be quantified and that these calculations be included in the main document. The Power Planning and Monitoring Company projected that the base consumer tariff would rise from 34 Pakistani rupees per unit of electricity in 2024–2025 to 37.28 rupees in 2035.
