US gasoline could rise to $5 per gallon before elections — Currie forecast
In the United States, the average gasoline price could reach $5 per gallon before the midterm elections in November 2026, according to Jeff Currie, founder and CEO of Real Macro. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, he called the probability of such a scenario extremely high, OilPrice reports.
According to the American Automobile Association AAA, the average nationwide diesel price stood at $6.0556 per gallon on September 11. This is the highest figure in US history: over the month, diesel rose in price by 14%, and by more than 60% compared with the previous year. The average price of regular gasoline was about $4.27 per gallon.
Constraints for refineries
In Currie’s view, oil refineries are approaching the limit of their ability to shift production between gasoline and diesel fuel depending on which product is in shorter supply on the market. He suggested that diesel could rise to $7–$9 per gallon before the situation eases.
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Currie also linked pressure on the market to insufficient investment in physical supplies. According to him, Brent quotes rising above $107 per barrel this week are harder to regard as a temporary shock. He noted that Chinese refineries are restarting units in an attempt to take advantage of high diesel margins.
Oil price fluctuations
Overnight into September 11, Brent nearly reached $110 per barrel, but later fell to around $103. The International Energy Agency warned that a sharp rise in fuel prices could lead to lower demand.
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan noted that record diesel prices will affect the cost of freight, transportation and deliveries in the United States. He also warned of a more expensive holiday season if geopolitical tensions persist.
