Estonia forecasts further electricity price fluctuations and increases due to gas
Exchange electricity prices in Estonia rose noticeably in the second half of August. Further developments will depend on the weather, renewable energy production and the price of natural gas, ERR News reports.
The average exchange price of electricity in Estonia in August was €59 per megawatt-hour, or 5.9 euro cents per kilowatt-hour. A year earlier, it stood at €77.30 per megawatt-hour. At the same time, electricity was about one-third more expensive in August than in July.
Price fluctuations in August
On different days in August, the average daily price ranged from just over €4 to €150 per megawatt-hour. According to the elektribörsihind.ee website, the cheapest hours on average were between 13:00 and 16:00, while the most expensive were between 19:00 and 22:00.
Marco Allikson, a representative of Baltic Energy Partners, said that average prices lower than last year were linked not to an increase in wind and solar energy production, but to limited capacity of the cross-border connection with Latvia. As a result, Estonia's exchange price more often corresponded to the Finnish price rather than the Latvian one.
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In the second half of the month, prices rose due to lower volumes of wind and solar generation in Europe, increased consumption and higher gas prices. Frederica Frey, a marketing manager at Elektrum, noted that during the last full week of August, wind energy production was among the lowest this year, while solar energy production was the lowest since April.
Gas and reserves ahead of winter
In summer, from June to August, the average electricity price in Estonia was nearly €56 per megawatt-hour, compared with nearly €52 during the same period last year. Frey and Allikson believe that the market will remain volatile in autumn and winter: sunny and windy days may lower prices, while low renewable energy production will increase the need for more expensive generation sources.
Allikson also pointed to rising gas quotations on the Dutch TTF exchange: the price exceeded €70 per megawatt-hour, whereas a month earlier it had been around €52. According to him, the pace at which European gas storage facilities are filled will be an important factor. They are currently filled to an average of 65% in the EU and 53% in Germany.
