Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 7.7% in July
In July 2026, consumer prices in Ukraine rose by 0.3%, and year-over-year inflation accelerated to 7.7%. In June, by contrast, prices fell by 0.1%, whereas in May they rose by 0.9% and in April by 1.4%.
The State Statistics Service noted that in July 2025, prices had fallen by 0.2%, so year-over-year inflation as of the end of July 2026 rose to 7.7% from 7.2% at the end of June, but this is still below the 8.2% recorded at the end of May.
It is noted that in July 2026, core inflation fell to 0.3% from 0.5% in June and 0.7% in May. Given that core inflation stood at the same 0.3% in July 2025, it remained at 8.1% on a year-over-year basis.
As previously reported, inflation in Ukraine surged to 26.6% during the first year of full-scale Russian aggression, after which it fell to 5.1% in 2023. The following year, it rose again to 12%, but in 2025, it was brought down to 8%, in part due to the National Bank’s fairly tight monetary policy.
At the end of July, the National Bank revised downward its inflation forecast for Ukraine for 2026 from 9.4% in its previous April forecast to 10.0%, and for 2027 from 6.5% to 6.9%.
“In recent months, the intensification of fundamental price pressures has shown signs of becoming a sustained trend due to rising business costs, primarily for logistics, labor, and energy resources. Inflation expectations were generally stable but remained elevated,” the regulator noted.
According to the updated inflation forecast trajectory, this revision is primarily driven by a reassessment of growth rates in the fourth quarter of this year and the pace of inflation decline next year: whereas the NBU previously expected inflation of 8.2% in the first quarter of 2027, it now expects 9.1%, and in the second quarter, 7.5% and 8.2%, respectively.
The core inflation forecast has deteriorated even more significantly: for this year, from 7.2% to 9.2%, and for next year, from 4.3% to 5.1%.
Source: State Statistics Service
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