Global phosphate market tightens as top producers reduce exports
The global phosphate fertilizer market is facing significant tightening as major producers — including China, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Russia — are reducing their exports. This development poses a threat of a large-scale food crisis worldwide, with hunger and fatalities expected not only in Iran but also in other regions.
According to data from the UN Comtrade and Bloomberg, exports of diammonium phosphate fertilizers have fluctuated considerably between 2014 and 2025. Russia ceased reporting export figures in 2022, and estimates from 2022 to 2025 rely on import data from other countries, adding opacity and uncertainty to the market outlook.
Market analysts warn that shortages in phosphate fertilizers could become a critical driver of rising food prices globally. Given phosphates' essential role in agriculture, constrained supply threatens crop yields and food system stability.
Key market players like China and Morocco traditionally hold large shares of phosphate production. Their export reductions reflect broader geopolitical and economic challenges impacting the agricultural sector and fertilizer supply security.
Consequently, the world must prepare for potential food supply difficulties and explore alternative approaches to sustaining agricultural production, including innovation and diversification of fertilizer sources. Timely measures will be crucial in maintaining food market stability in the coming years.
