Ukraine may not be able to export 9 million metric tons of grain worth $2.8 billion
In August through October, Ukraine may be unable to export approximately 9 million metric tons of agricultural products to foreign markets due to limited export capacity. This could result in a delay in foreign exchange earnings totaling between $1.9 billion and $2.8 billion.
The greatest difficulties will arise during the peak harvest season and the release of the new crop. The capacity shortfall is estimated at 2.9 million metric tons in August, 2.8 million metric tons in September, and over 3.3 million metric tons in October.
Most of the unexported volume will consist of wheat and corn.
Alternative land and river routes are currently unable to fully replace deep-sea exports. If logistical constraints persist for an extended period, temporary delays in foreign exchange inflows could turn into irreversible direct losses for the agricultural sector and the country’s economy.
This is according to a forecast by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
Ukraine is considering the possibility of transporting grain by rail through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanta as a safer alternative to maritime exports. Kyiv has already appealed to Chisinau to establish a reduced tariff for such shipments.
As a reminder, grain exports from Ukraine could fall by more than half.
